Weather Disturbance Alert:

WEATHER TODAY | At 3:00 a.m., the Low Pressure Area (LPA) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was spotted at 795 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte. This weather disturbance is still expected to develop into a Tropical Depression anytime today and will be called #DomengPH. PAGASA said it will also trigger the southwesterly surface windflow or Hanging Habagat.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral-conditions have prevailed, followed by a shift towards warming condition at the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Since May, an El Niño Watch has been declared by PAGASA, consistent with increasingly above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and significant weakening of the low-level trade winds across the CEEP. Most dynamical and statistical models favor El Niño to develop during the remaining portions of 2014.

PAGASA S&T Media Release Quezon City, 01 May 2014

PAGASA has been closely monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific that could lead to possible development of an El Niño. A majority of climate models indicate that El Niño may develop this year. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions persisted during the remaining months of 2013 up to December, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperature (SST) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Most model forecasts continue to indicate ENSO-neutral condition into early 2014, with an increasing chance towards a warming trend during Northern Hemisphere summer of 2014.

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