OVERVIEW AND ASSESSMENT
The tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) which developed on December 1 has intensified into a Tropical Storm with international name “Hagupit”.
This weather system approaching east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the week may become a typhoon – or even a super typhoon – according to weather forecasters. Tropical Storm Hagupit may build up wind strengths near super typhoon levels by Saturday, December 6.


As of December 3, Tropical Storm Hagupit has intensified into a typhoon, but is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
“Hagupit” is packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 90 kph. It is moving west-northwest and is fast approaching the country at 35 kph. Should it maintain its current speed and track, the storm will be inside the PAR by Thursday.
Once it enters the PAR, the typhoon will be called “Ruby,” the 18th tropical cyclone to enter PAR this year and first this month.
As of December 3, Typhoon Hagupit has maximum sustained winds of 140kph and gustiness of 170kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 30kph.
With a 600-km radius, the typhoon would cover Southern Luzon, the Visayas and Northern Mindanao.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:

1. Will make landfall in Eastern Visayas
   - Ruby will enter PAR on Thursday morning (Dec. 4) with winds of 160kph with gust of 190kph.
   - Landfall Saturday afternoon or evening
   - Occurrence of Storm Surge 3-4 meters
   - Moderate to intense (5-20 mm/hr) rains to the affected areas especially along the track of Ruby
   - Possible flashfloods in low lying areas and landslides in mountainous areas
   - Coastal waters along the eastern seabord of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao will be rough to very rough and                dangerous to all sea vessels.

2. Will recurve to the north and will not make landfall
   - Ruby will enter PAR on Thursday.
   - Will still affect eastern Visayas and Bicol Region
   - Moderate to occasionally heavy rains (5-15 mm/hr) over eastern sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas.
   - Possible flashfloods in low lying areas and landslides in mountainous areas
   - Coastal waters along the eastern seabord of Luzon and Visayas will be rough to very rough and dangerous to all sea vessels.

The trough of a low pressure area north of the Philippines could pull Hagupit away from the Philippine landmass, although it may be too weak to make this happen. Based on current forecast models, there is a 75% chance of Hagupit making landfall in Eastern Visayas and 25% of doing a recurve and sparing the Philippines.
STORM SURGE
In the first scenario, the approaching storm is expected to generate storm surge of 3 to 4 meters (10 to 13 feet) high. In comparison, storm surges that hit Tacloban City and Iloilo during Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) were 4.5 to 5 meters (15 to 16.4 feet) high.
According to Project NOAH, the predicted storm surge height data will be released 48 hours before the storm’s landfall. Once NOAH announces the predicted storm surge height, DPRM can now use the data to map the areas with high storm surge risk.
References:

- PAGASA
- DOST-Project NOAH
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

 

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